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turning_points_in_america_s_afghan_war [2022/11/21 23:46] – 71.71.5.21turning_points_in_america_s_afghan_war [2023/03/26 15:16] (current) – removed one false statement kc
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 =====Turning Points in America's Afghan War===== =====Turning Points in America's Afghan War=====
  
-Two views on what happened to Afghanistan over the last two decades. The first chart depends on the FDD series of maps((https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan)), and it appears to me to give an understandable narrative of how the Taliban emerged as winner. The second chart depends on "the Gilliams" set of maps((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQkCAHMUgCU)), and it appears to be an overly optimistic view of the fortunes of Taliban and anti-Taliban forces. The reports were forced to conform more closely to reality as contested areas nominally recorded as being under government control were revealed to be certainly under Taliban control. The second chart is almost a perverse mirror image of the first. If one bases oneself on the second chart, it is more possible to view things in soft focus and claim that Afghanistan was in good shape until Biden became president. However, even the second chart shows things falling apart for the government during the Trump years.+Two views on what happened to Afghanistan over the last two decades. The first chart depends on the FDD series of maps((https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan)), and it appears to me to give an understandable narrative of how the Taliban emerged as winner. The second chart depends on "the Gilliams" set of maps((https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQkCAHMUgCU)), and it appears to be an overly optimistic view of the fortunes of Taliban and anti-Taliban forces. The reports were forced to conform more closely to reality as contested areas nominally recorded as being under government control were revealed to be certainly under Taliban control. The second chart is almost a perverse mirror image of the first. If one bases oneself on the second chart, it is more possible to view things in soft focus and claim that Afghanistan was in good shape until Biden became president. However, even the second chart shows things falling apart for the government during the Trump years.(Click Individual charts to see them full-sized.)
  
 {{:talibandynamics2.png?200|}}.....{{:dynamicsgilliam.png?200|}}.....{{:inverteddynamicsgilliam.png?200|}}\\ {{:talibandynamics2.png?200|}}.....{{:dynamicsgilliam.png?200|}}.....{{:inverteddynamicsgilliam.png?200|}}\\
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 "The Taliban increased their control of wider swaths of the country – and by June of this year [2020], contested or controlled an estimated 50% to 70% of Afghan territory outside of urban centers, according to a United Nations Security Council report."((https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/16/middleeast/taliban-control-afghanistan-explained-intl-hnk/index.html)) "The Taliban increased their control of wider swaths of the country – and by June of this year [2020], contested or controlled an estimated 50% to 70% of Afghan territory outside of urban centers, according to a United Nations Security Council report."((https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/16/middleeast/taliban-control-afghanistan-explained-intl-hnk/index.html))
  
-"The precise strength of the Taliban, .... is not}} accurately known. UN Security Council monitors last year said the group had between 55,000 and 85,000 fighters." ((https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/4/how-do-afghanistan-forces-and-taliban-compare))+"The precise strength of the Taliban, .... is not accurately known. UN Security Council monitors last year said the group had between 55,000 and 85,000 fighters." ((https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/8/4/how-do-afghanistan-forces-and-taliban-compare))
  
 In early 2021, "Acting U.S. Defense Secretary of State Christopher Miller announced Friday the number of American troops in Afghanistan has been reduced to 2,500, saying the move has brought Washington 'closer than ever to ending nearly two decades of war.'" In early 2021, "Acting U.S. Defense Secretary of State Christopher Miller announced Friday the number of American troops in Afghanistan has been reduced to 2,500, saying the move has brought Washington 'closer than ever to ending nearly two decades of war.'"
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 The general rule is that the ratio of one's troops to the troops in an insurgency should be three to one. Therefore, for Biden to have overcome the Taliban after he came to office, he would need to have ramped up US presence in Afghanistan to something around 180,000 troops. However, at the peak of the Obama surge the US had more than 100,000 troops on the ground. That move was not done in a matter of weeks, and the surge was not a complete success since the Taliban recovered after US troop levels were reduced to 8,400. The general rule is that the ratio of one's troops to the troops in an insurgency should be three to one. Therefore, for Biden to have overcome the Taliban after he came to office, he would need to have ramped up US presence in Afghanistan to something around 180,000 troops. However, at the peak of the Obama surge the US had more than 100,000 troops on the ground. That move was not done in a matter of weeks, and the surge was not a complete success since the Taliban recovered after US troop levels were reduced to 8,400.
  
-Here us a diagram the shows what a challenge it would have been to turn matters around in the early months of 2021,+Here us a diagram that indicates what a challenge it would have been to turn matters around in the early months of 2021,
  
 {{:trooplevelsafghanistan.png?400|}} {{:trooplevelsafghanistan.png?400|}}
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-Note that as Trump was leaving office less than 3000 US troops remained.  
  
 The moral of the story is that if you wear rose-colored glasses\\ you can't see the flashing blue lights of the police car bearing down on you.\\ The moral of the story is that if you wear rose-colored glasses\\ you can't see the flashing blue lights of the police car bearing down on you.\\
turning_points_in_america_s_afghan_war.1669092378.txt.gz · Last modified: 2022/11/21 23:46 by 71.71.5.21