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=====Turning Points in America's Afghan War=====

Two views on what happened to Afghanistan over the last two decades. The first chart depends on the FDD series of maps((1)), and it appears to me to give an understandable narrative of how the Taliban emerged as winner. The second chart depends on "the Gilliams" set of maps((2)), and it appears to be an overly optimistic view of the fortunes of Taliban and anti-Taliban forces. The reports were forced to conform more closely to reality as contested areas nominally recorded as being under government control were revealed to be certainly under Taliban control. The second chart is almost a perverse mirror image of the first. If one bases oneself on the second chart, it is more possible to view things in soft focus and claim that Afghanistan was in good shape until Biden became president. However, even the second chart shows things falling apart for the government during the Trump years.

{{:talibandynamics2.png?200|}}.....{{:dynamicsgilliam.png?200|}}.....{{:inverteddynamicsgilliam.png?200|}}\\
(The third chart is an inverted image of the second chart. Ironically, it seems to closely approximate the first chart, the one I regard as the more reliable of the two published sets of information.) I am reminded that one of my teachers would sometimes comment on what a student claimed by saying, "That is exactly wrong." Being exactly wrong is a very useful state to be in because if an explanation is known to be wrong then much room for speculation is removed. The really caustic comment that one of the early generation of quantum physicists made was, "That isn't even wrong!"
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The FDD-related chart shows that anti-Taliban forces held about 38% of Afghanistan shortly after the US invasion, lost ground until the Obama surge, when it rose from less than 10% to somewhat less than 30%. Then, in 2018, there was a strong inflection point. After that, the government steadily lost territory and had almost no territory under its control shortly after the US withdrawal. It appears that when Trump cut the Afghan officials out of the picture and began direct negotiations with the Taliban, few if any Afghans believed that the government was viable.

The Taliban originally held around 92% of Afghanistan, was reduced to holding around 32% of the country by the US invasion, was making good progress toward recovery until it was hit by the Obama surge and knocked back to around 23% of the country. At the same time, the contended areas rose to about 73% of the country, and the government hit the bottom in the period before the final debacle. As some contended areas were won over by the government, its holdings increased. But at the same time, more contended areas were won over by the Taliban. The more territory it controlled, the more military capital it possessed, and it out-competed the government on that foundation. Then the US gave clear indications of abandoning the government. The Taliban continued to gain in the contended area but also attrited the government holdings. The Taliban gained higher and higher momentum from that time forward.

The moral of the story is that if you wear rose-colored glasses\\ you can't see the flashing blue lights of the police car bearing down on you.\\
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