There are three aspects that seem imperative on the topic, as it usually is - political, economic, and social.
The political framework that has kept everyone checked, or at least, attempted to do so, is the Islamic establishments as of the end of the monarchy in Afghanistan. The failure of the Socialist movements, even reinforced by the Soviets, sent the country back even further into the grip of the Islamic clerics and later on, the Taliban, being the appearances as well as the muscle. And the facts already illustrated the incapabilities of the political framework in moving the country forward. Two elements might just stand out in the vision of a new political framework, namely, adequate representation of ethnic interests and a sufficiency of statehood recognition. It's nothing surprising to find a modern state being founded upon the rise of nationalism, which provides the centripetal force needed to pull together its people of different classes and regions. Yet in th case of Afghnistan, the centripetal force has failed to take shape and perform due to the fragmentation of the Afghans, primarily divided by ethnicity. That has. been why the only functioning political framework that holds the country together by far is Islam. The success of a new political framework therefore very much relies on the supplies of such a centripetal force which is applicable to all ethnic peoples.
However, it's a task rather difficult, if not completely impossible, to generate such a force in a tribal society, in which ordinary people turn to their chieftans when they are in need, because the government is simply too far away to cater to their demands on necessity. And a modern state can hardly be created when, on the ground level, every person is a tribal one. Hence the significance of the recognition of the statehood, which plays nothing less than a pivotal role to the generation of the centripetal force. And, as proven time and again in history, it comes from a government functional enough to meet the needs of its people on the grassroot level, and hence creates the sense of security, followed by the recognition of the statehood. And in the case of Afghanistan, a process like this requires cooperation on all levels, from the state government to disctrict administrations to tribal leadership, and relies heavily on sufficient supplies of financial resources.
In a country like Afghanistan, agricultural, tribal and sparsely inhabitated, land reforms can be the key to establishing a modern state, which could lay the foundations to harvest the farmers' support for the statehood. The failure of the land reforms in the 1970s and 1980s owed, by and large, to the lack and ignorance of seasonable water supplies for irrigation. The defeciency in the Soviet policy guidances very much likely came from the geological conditions in the South Russian Plain / East European Plain, where concerns of water supply seems nothing but uncalled for, whereas in Afghanistan, water supply holds the key to any success in efforts to redistribute land among farmers. And that was how the socialist movement was lost along with the endeavours to move the country towards modernization. And this is where the land reforms in the future need to underpin for success: a functional government that reallocates land and water resources among the farmers in a sustainable fashion.
The key in terms of land reforms, though, is the sufficiency in food yield. The independence and the success of Afghanistan as a modern state can hardly be seperated from the self-sufficiency of food suppllies as well as self-sustained industrialization. And on that note, one lesson that can be referred to, as history suggests, is the predicament of the countries rich in natural resources and poor in management and owenership in Africa and Latin America. With the abundance of mine reserves in hand, independent development of the mining industry looks essential to the success of the modernity of Afghanistan.
With what's being said, one of the reasons behind the economic predicament of the countries in Africa and Latin America, is the reliance on foreign investments when it comes to the monetary needs for industrialzation, which often ends up at the control of the natural resources in the hands of the international conglomerates and the draining away of domestic economic vibe. One possible way that is worth exploring might be the creation of a credit system at the state level, supported and facilitated by the state government. The advantage of a system like this is its low-cost on the operation side, which could supply Afghanistan the opportunity to develop its mining industry, to large extent, antonomously, especially given the fact that the mining industry cannot develop without sufficient and large-amount of funding.
One of the phenomena that coupled with industrialization, which can be observed worldwide in history, is the emergence of feminist movements, which enables women to break away from the patriarchal rule pervasive in the pre-industrialized countries and becomes an integral part of the labour force. A social trend like this usually coincides with political awareness and will in pursuit of human rights as much as economic independence of women, which, in particular, has been the case in Afghanistan. Therein the high rise of feminist movement aiming at human rights, gender equality and economic independence is very much forseeable in the future. And rendering continuous support for the movement on the policy-introducing level might just be as crucial in the making of a modern state in Afghanistan.
There are numerous characteristics that might play a decent role in the success of a modern Afghanistan, among which is the ethnic parity. It is a unique attribute, compared to many contemporary modern states. In other words, there is no ethnic people in the country that holds the majority in number or strength, not even the present-day Pashtuns. The Islamic extremism that Pashtuns hold on to in the attempt to establish a functioning central authority has proven to be reactionary - the regime of the Taliban. In circumstances like this, the balance of power is often essential to the establishment of any concrete and sustainable statehood and governance. The reference, in this case, can be directed to the political practice of Bosnia and Herzegovina, where there live three ethnic peoples, namely, Serbs, Croats and Boshnjaks (converted muslims under the rule of the Ottoman Empire). The European solution time and again reiterated the absolute political parity - one political entity for each ethnic people. And it failed time and again in a decade-long Bosnian civil war. The US solution, however, was focused on the balance of the politcal weight - a bipartisan model, a framework that accomodates two political entities, the Republic of the Serbs, and the Federation of the Boshnjaks and the Croats. And the US solution has proven to be a success up to date. Therein the bipartisan model might be worth considering in terms of the political framework concerning the statehood of Afghanistan in the future, i.e. a framework akin to a setup composed of a Pashtun Republic and a Federation of the Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras.
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